It is not surprising that there is growing Hispanic influence in Congress. In 2001, Hispanics became the nation’s largest minority group, surpassing African-Americans. But while their numbers in Congress continue to grow, their political influence trails their proportion of the population. According to the Pew Hispanic Center, Hispanics made up 14.3 percent of the population but only 6 percent of votes cast in 2004.

Increases in the Hispanic population do eventually translate into more representation in Congress, but three factors slow this process. First, only 60 percent of adult Hispanics are citizens eligible to vote in federal elections. Second, more than one-third of Hispanics are under 18, a larger percentage than of whites or blacks. Third, new and newly eligible voters do not vote as frequently as established, habitual voters.

Overall, this means that in 2004 only 39 percent of Hispanics were eligible to vote, versus 76 percent of whites and 65 percent of blacks, and only 19 percent of Hispanics voted in 2004, as opposed to 51 percent of whites and 39 percent of blacks.

Hispanics lean Democratic, but their vote is not monolithic. In typical presidential elections, the Hispanics have voted for the Democrat 2-1. But in 2004, President Bush captured about 40 percent. Karl Rove knows that as Hispanics become a larger part of the electorate Republicans will have to compete successfully for the Hispanic voter.

Looking at Congress, the popular impression is that there are a handful of conservative Cuban Republicans and a larger group of liberal Hispanic Democrats, but the reality is much more varied.

There are 25 Hispanic House members (not including newly named Sen. Robert Menendez’s vacant House seat)--five Republican and 20 Democratic. They make up roughly 6 percent of the House, about the same as their percentage of the 2004 vote. By contrast, there are 40 voting House Members in the Black Caucus.

According to the Almanac of American Politics, almost every Hispanic member (22 of 25) represents a district that has a majority of Hispanic residents, although, because of the large percentage ineligible to vote, most depend on some non-Hispanic voters. Six Hispanic Democrats represent districts won by Bush. In 16 of the 25 districts, neither John Kerry nor Bush exceeded 60 percent of the vote. In 10 districts, the margin between Bush and Kerry was 10 percent or less.

As for the moderate politics of many Hispanic members, the evidence is clearly seen in the vote ratings put together by political scientists Keith Poole and Howard Rosenthal (voteview.org). Eight of 20 Hispanic Democratic House members are rated as among the 40 most conservative Democrats, and two of the five Hispanic Republicans are among the 15 percent most liberal Republicans.

There is clearly a liberal bloc, with 11 of the 20 in the most liberal third of Democrats, and Republican Mario Diaz-Balart of Florida ranks as more conservative than most Republicans.

In the Senate, Ken Salazar of Colorado ranked among the 10 most conservative Democrats, while Mel Martinez of Florida was among the 15 most liberal Republicans. Menendez will likely mirror Martinez on the Democratic side.

With the certain growth of the Hispanic Caucus, both parties competing for Hispanic votes and with such a large proportion of Hispanic members in the middle of the spectrum, this is a recipe for future influence.

John C. Fortier is a research fellow at AEI.

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