WASHINGTON -- President bush drew big applause
during his State of the Union address with a renewed call for "a
rational, humane guest-worker program" to keep the economy humming.
But that appeal came only after Mr. Bush issued a
much sterner one first -- for tougher enforcement of immigration
laws, more vigilance on the border and an immigration policy that
"reflects our values."
The message Mr. Bush delivered to lawmakers is the
same one an increasingly vocal anti-immigration chorus is sending to
him: First get tough; then we'll talk.
Mr. Bush was cheered by an unlikely alliance of
pro-business Republicans, Democrats, unions and immigrant groups
when he called for a guest-worker program in his State of the Union
address two years ago. But the idea has hit a wall of opposition
from the party's cultural conservatives and security hawks who first
want to stop the flood of illegal immigrants into the U.S. (See
related article1.)
In December, the House of Representatives passed
legislation that would, among other things, extend a short wall on
the border with Mexico to 700 miles. The Senate, which had planned
to overhaul immigration laws when it takes up its own bill in a few
weeks, now also is under pressure from some Republicans to toughen
border controls first.
As immigration soars to an all-time high, that
get-tough argument is gaining political steam. With the 2006
elections still 10 months away, a half-dozen candidates are running
for national office on pledges to stop illegal immigration. Bills on
the issue, many denying benefits to illegal immigrants, have been
introduced in 31 state legislatures.
And polls show mounting voter unease about
immigration: A December 2005 Wall Street Journal-NBC poll found that
57% of those questioned think the U.S. is "too open to immigrants."
"It's astonishing how much this has become an issue
across the country," says Brian Bilbray, a San Diego Republican who
hopes to return to the U.S. House of Representatives this year after
spending the past six years as a lobbyist for the Federation for
American Immigration Reform, which wants to restrict immigration.
But for all the emotion immigration is stirring up,
political operatives in both parties warn that it isn't an issue
that rallies voters. "Will this impact your electoral ambitions?"
asks Ryan Ellis of the conservative group Americans for Tax Reform,
who has studied the role immigration played in recent elections.
"All history has indicated 'no,' whether you're in Arizona or
Maine," he answers.
It didn't prove a successful strategy for the
Virginia governor's race in November. Republican Jerry Kilgore
seized late in the campaign on the issue of taxpayer-funded job
centers for illegal immigrants, and in a stinging television ad
asked of his Democratic opponent, "What part of illegal does Tim
Kaine not understand?" Although immigration was only one issue in
the campaign, Mr. Kaine won with 52% of the vote.
Likewise, in December, in a special House election
in California's Orange County -- where illegal immigration is a
flashpoint -- Jim Gilchrist, founder of the Minuteman Project, a
volunteer border-patrol group, won just 25% of the vote.
Mr. Ellis of Americans for Tax Reform also points
to seven 2004 Republican primaries where immigration-restriction
candidates never won more than 46% of the vote. Among those beating
back challenges: Arizona Congressmen James Kolbe and Jeff Flake, who
are sponsors of a House bill that would let illegal immigrants earn
legal residency in the U.S.
Candidates who want to restrict immigration seem
not to fare well because very few people worry enough about
immigration to vote on it -- even though many of them tell pollsters
they're worried. In the Wall Street Journal-NBC poll, 78% of those
questioned favored "tightening" the border with Mexico -- but only
7% said illegal immigration was their biggest national concern.
Immigration is "a loud debate that produces few
voters," says Frank Sharry, director of the National Immigration
Forum, a Washington immigrants-rights group.
But that doesn't mean immigration won't be talked
about this campaign season. Most prominently among 2006 candidates,
Rep. Tom Tancredo, a Colorado Republican, is toying with a symbolic
run for the White House. Among other things, Mr. Tancredo wants to
deport the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants now in the U.S.
and deny citizenship to the U.S.-born children of illegal
immigrants.
Immigration restrictionists also have announced
runs for governor in Colorado, for the U.S. Senate from California
and for a smattering of House seats. San Diego's Mr. Bilbray is
running in an April primary to succeed former Rep. Randall "Duke"
Cunningham while also pursuing a class-action lawsuit that would
prevent California public colleges from offering in-state tuition to
illegal aliens.
Some state legislatures are considering extending
in-state tuition, health benefits and driver's licenses to illegal
immigrants, even while others want to ban such benefits. In Ohio, a
statehouse Republican has said he is considering an amendment to the
U.S. Constitution to exclude illegal immigrants from the census
counts that are used to apportion Congressional seats.
Bills in New Hampshire and North Carolina would
require local policemen to enforce federal immigration laws, and one
in Virginia would require proof of legal residency to obtain a
marriage license.
With Republicans largely leading the
anti-immigration charge, the issue is causing heartburn for the
national party, which was hoping that its generally pro-immigration
stand would help it pick up Hispanic voters. Twelve years ago,
California's Republican Gov. Pete Wilson won re-election in part by
campaigning for a ballot measure that would deny benefits to illegal
aliens -- a rare instance where an anti-immigration stand won the
day.
But a decade passed before Republicans won the
governor's office again, and they still haven't won back Hispanic
voters. "It was a metaphor for short-term gain, long-term loss,"
says the National Immigration Forum's Mr. Sharry.
Republican pollster Ed Goeas says he urges his
clients to talk about solutions to illegal immigration instead of
focusing on emotion-charged issues like immigrant job centers if
they want to win. His firm, the Tarrance Group, does polling for
several immigration-restriction candidates, including Mr. Tancredo,
he says.
But in anticipation of the 2006 elections, he's
also running voter focus groups to help candidates handle such
volatile issues as amnesty for illegal immigrants and whether to
allow guest workers to eventually stay in the U.S. After voters let
off steam, he says, focus groups show that immigration "becomes a
very reasoned conversation very quickly."
Write to June Kronholz at
june.kronholz@wsj.com