One result of the changed political climate after last month's terrorist attacks may be a setback in Republican hopes of making major political gains among Hispanics.

They are the nation's fastest-growing ethnic group, and GOP strategists have long regarded them as a key to which party gains national political domination over the next decade.

The attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon came just days after Mexican President Vicente Fox's highly publicized visit to the United States, which included a joint appearance with President Bush before a heavily Hispanic audience in Toledo.

The visit underscored the likelihood that the two presidents' close relationship would lead to an agreement on liberalizing immigration laws long sought by Mexican-American groups.

But the focus now is on tightening the nation's borders, not loosening them. And immigration reform has been delayed and perhaps sidetracked entirely for the foreseeable future.

A second blow to GOP hopes of wooing more Hispanics was Rep. Henry Bonilla's decision this week not to seek the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Phil Gramm.

GOP leaders initially had hoped to clear the primary field for the San Antonio Republican, ensuring that their Texas ticket next year would be headed by a high-profile Hispanic.

Republicans had thought Mr. Bonilla could counter the possibility that Laredo businessman Tony Sanchez might be the Democrats' gubernatorial nominee in 2002.

But it was by no means certain that Mr. Bonilla, an attractive general election candidate, could win a contested GOP primary. Mr. Gramm's seat is drawing other prominent Republicans, such as Attorney General John Cornyn, the early GOP front-runner in the polls.

So Mr. Bonilla bowed out, probably taking away the Republicans' best hope to elect the state's first Hispanic senator and change its political dynamic.

For the most part, Hispanics in Texas and nationally have tended, like other racial or ethnic minorities, to favor the Democrats. But Republicans have argued that Hispanics' strong emphasis on family, religion and other traditional values makes them a natural GOP ally.

The Democrats have been helped by the fact that Hispanics generally support federal health and education programs aimed at poorer Americans and by some Republicans' policies that were seen as anti-Hispanic. Former California Gov. Pete Wilson's efforts to curb health and education for immigrants drove Hispanics there away from the GOP.

Although Mr. Bush has enjoyed success in reaching out to Texas' Hispanic community, he has been only partially successful in convincing Hispanics nationally that he really is a "different kind of Republican." He polled 35 percent of the national Hispanic vote in 2000, according to network exit polls.

In Texas, Mr. Bush got 43 percent of the Hispanic vote last year, and in Florida, where Hispanics include traditionally Republican Cuban-Americans, he received 49 percent. But in California, Mr. Bush polled 29 percent. And in New York, where Puerto Ricans are a major component, he got only18 percent.

The GOP's future hopes probably lie mainly in states with growing Mexican-American communities. Besides Texas and California, the largest groups are in New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada and Arizona.

Administration officials recognize that Mr. Bush and other national GOP figures are unlikely to make inroads among African-Americans. So, their efforts to woo Hispanics may be just beginning.

Mr. Bush is widely expected to name a Hispanic to the next Supreme Court vacancy, something the Democrats also were prepared to do had they won the last election. And he is likely to revisit the immigration issue later in his term.

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ABOUT THE WRITER

Carl P. Leubsdorf is Washington bureau chief of the Dallas Morning News. Readers may write to him at the Dallas Morning News Washington bureau, 1325 G Street NW, Suite 250, Washington, D.C. 20005, or via e-mail at: cleubsdorf(AT)dallasnews.com.

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From: http://www.hispaniconline.com/article.html?SMContentIndex=1&SMContentSet=0