Analysis: Latino voters sway with language


By Marie Horrigan
UPI Deputy Americas Editor
http://www.washtimes.com/upi-breaking/20040419-120511-7902r.htm
Washington, DC, Apr. 19 (UPI) -- A study released Monday suggests
Hispanic voters aren't swayed by traditional campaign outreach efforts,
a finding that may have significant implications for how Sen. John Kerry
and President Bush market themselves to the country's largest minority
group.
Like several minority groups, Hispanics have long been associated
with the Democratic Party. Latinos fall somewhere between white and
African-American voters in terms of the percentage of the population
that identifies itself as a Democrat, according to a 2002 study by the
nonpartisan Pew Hispanic Center.
That same study also found that while Democratic
identification among Hispanics is broad, it is also shallow and included
opinions on several key issues that defy normal party platforms.
The Pew Hispanic Center's survey released Monday further underscored
this point, with findings that Latinos also are stratified according to
whether they are foreign-born or native and whether they get their news
through English-language or Spanish media.
The latest study, examining media habits among the United States' 35
million Hispanic inhabitants, said the Latino population can be divided
into three segments -- those who get their news from English-language
sources, those who get their news from Spanish-language media, and those
who switch between the two.
Most significant for the president and his likely Democratic
contender, the senator from Massachusetts, the majority of likely
Hispanic voters who responded to the poll get their news entirely from
English-language media. Forty percent get news from both languages,
while 6 percent of likely voters get all their news in Spanish.
Sixty-one percent of this group watches television network news shows
only in English, while 28 percent watch news programs in both languages
and 11 percent only in Spanish.
This means, the study reported, that the popular practice of airing
political advertising on national Spanish-language news shows reaches,
at best, 39 percent of the likely Hispanic voters, calling into question
the efficacy of that practice in reaching this significant community.
The segment of respondents who said they used all English-language
media outlets -- 31 percent of those polled -- were better educated and
made more money. The vast majority -- nearly eight out of 10 -- was born
in the United States and 44 percent made more than $50,000 a year. By
comparison, 96 percent of those who only used Spanish-language media
sources were foreign born and 65 percent made less than $30,000 a year.
The study's findings are based on a nationwide telephone survey of
1,316 Latinos conducted Feb. 11 to March 11. The survey had a margin of
error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
Pew Hispanic Center Director Roberto Suro told United Press
International he had not yet analyzed the survey's findings to
extrapolate what they mean for likely Hispanic voting behavior in the
2004 presidential election.
"If I recall, for the most part the demographic characteristics you
see in the general population hold for the Hispanics as well," Suro
said, but added that the one "wrinkle" in the trend was that a lot of
recently naturalized immigrants voted in the late '90s and in the 2000
election.
Gabriela Lemus, director of policy and legislation for the
nonpartisan League of United Latin American Citizens, agreed that newly
naturalized immigrants are more likely to vote, but pointed to other raw
data that is perhaps more significant.
"Let's look at the numbers -- 8 million registered, 8 million
eligible to register. Why aren't they registering?" she asked.
Thirty-five percent of the Hispanic population is between the ages of
18 and 25, an age bracket typically uninterested in both voting and
policy issues, Lemus said. Also, a large proportion of the population
has dropped out of school. "The less education you have, the less likely
you are to vote, and that may trend with the media findings as well,"
she said. Finally, many Hispanics were embarrassed to vote because they
had never done so and didn't know how.
The fact that Hispanics are the largest population minority group in
the United States also is misleading once data is examined.
U.S. Census data show that 27.5 percent of voting-age Hispanics in
the United States took part in the 2000 election, far below the averages
for other ethnic groups.
One reason for this is that nearly four out of 10 of Latinos age 18
and above are not U.S. citizens, and thus cannot vote. Among whites this
percentage is 2.2 percent, while 5.7 percent of voting-age blacks in the
United States are not citizens.
Of the 202.6 million voting-age people living in the United States in
2000, 21.5 million were of Hispanic origin. Of those, 13 million were
citizens, 7.5 million were registered, and 5.9 million actually voted.
This left Hispanics with the lowest percentage of registered voters
actually casting a ballot in the 2000 presidential election, behind
whites, blacks and Asians and Pacific islanders. Nationwide, 85.5
percent of registered voters participated in the 2000 election, while
78.6 percent of Hispanics did.
These statistics would point to candidates' need to pursue Hispanic
voters on two tracks -- first, by addressing the policy issues important
to them, but more importantly by getting them registered to vote.
Voter registration drives have become a major part of the 2004
election to deal with this exact problem. Nonprofit organizations,
including one Lemus is working to get off the ground, are working
feverishly to register voters. These organizations have to register
voters for both sides, but by using demographic information they are
able to handicap their effort by going after groups who historically
have leaned to either side of the political divide.
Lemus added that it is important to respond to the policy questions
Hispanics have, which are largely mainstream American issues: education,
healthcare and the economy. Many Hispanics registering for the first
time label themselves independents, Lemus said. "They really are
curious, they want to be brought into it, they want someone to fight
over them," which either candidate has yet to do.
The president, a former Texas governor who promised to work hard with
Mexican President Vicente Fox to deal with the issue of illegal
immigrants, made little headway on the issue beyond his campaign
promises. This may come to haunt him in November, Lemus said.
On the other hand, Kerry has yet to define himself with Hispanic
voters, Lemus said. "A lot of people are undecided. They're waiting to
see from Kerry what he's going to do and what his plan is and what the
strategy is," she said. The deciding factor, she later added, will be
"what Kerry comes out with on education, healthcare and the economy."
"Bush is a known entity. Now they're going to have to figure out ...
do you change your horse in mid-stream?"
Copyright
2004 United Press International
San Jose Mercury News
Posted on Tue, Apr. 20, 2004 |
|
WASHINGTON
- Hispanics in the United States view
Spanish-language news media as important to their community and
more likely than English-language media to portray them
positively, according to a survey.
Still, the majority of Hispanics get their news either from
English-language media or switch between Spanish and
English-language outlets.
The poll found 31 percent of Hispanics get all their news in
English, 24 percent get all their news in Spanish and 44 percent
get their news from media in both languages.
"The preference for Spanish-language media is highest among
recent arrivals to this country," said Roberto Suro, director of
the Pew Hispanic Center, sponsor of the poll. "It's very clear
that the size of the future market for the Spanish-language
media depends on the number of Hispanics allowed to emigrate
here."
Suro said "the longer Hispanics are here in this country, the
more they migrate out of Spanish-only media, either to
English-language or to be switchers. There's a question whether
the Spanish-language media can still exercise some hold on the
second generation of immigrants."
Spanish-language media is a multimillion dollar business in
the United States, with a half-dozen national newspapers, two
major national television networks and many local TV and radio
stations and newspapers in urban areas with large Hispanic
populations.
Hispanics are evenly split on the question of the
English-language media's handling of stories about the Hispanic
community. Among those who get their news in English, more were
likely to think Hispanics were portrayed negatively, with an
excessive focus on topics such as illegal immigration and drug
dealing and not enough on accomplishments in business and
politics.
Fewer than half, 45 percent, said the English-language media
have done an excellent or good job of covering news relevant to
Hispanics, yet that number is almost seven in 10 for
Spanish-language media.
Views of the media's role in society were generally far more
positive among those who get all of their news from
Spanish-language outlets.
"Only half of the foreign born population gets all their news
from Spanish-language media only," said Suro. But he said that
"the Spanish-language media is held in very high esteem as an
ethnic institution. It is very important to the Hispanic
community."
Hispanics who are registered to vote and have cast ballots
tend to prefer English-language media. More than half of
Hispanic voters, 53 percent, get all their news in English, and
40 percent of that group get their news in both languages, the
poll found.
|
|